Risk Modeling Products

DecisionTools Suite

decisions suite

Wouldn’t you like to know the chances of making money on your next venture? Or which of many decision options is most likely to yield the best payoff? How about the best sequential drilling strategy? Or how much to invest in various projects in order to maximize the return on your project portfolio?

Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With the DecisionTools Suite, you can answer these questions and more – right in your Excel spreadsheet.

The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty that runs in Microsoft Excel. The DecisionTools Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, the DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs integrate tightly with each other and with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

For full details, click here.

@RISK

at_risk

Wouldn’t you like to know the chances of making money – or taking a loss — on your next venture? Or the likelihood that your project will finish on time and within budget? How about the probabilities of finding oil or gas, and in what amounts?

Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With @RISK, you can answer these questions and more – right in your Excel spreadsheet.

@RISK (pronounced “at risk”) performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your spreadsheet model—and tells you how likely they are to occur. It mathematically and objectively computes and tracks many different possible future scenarios, then tells you the probabilities and risks associated with each different one. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under uncertainty.

INDUSTRIAL VERSION

  • The Industrial version of @RISK also helps you plan the best risk management strategies through the integration of RiskOptimizer , which combines Monte Carlo simulation with the latest solving technology to optimize any spreadsheet with uncertain values.  Using genetic algorithms or OptQuest, along with @RISK functions, RISKOptimizer can determine the best allocation of resources, the optimal asset allocation, the most efficient schedule, and much more.
  • Industrial @RISK also includes a set of functions for simulating time series processes, or values that change over time. Any future projection of time series values has inherent uncertainty, and @RISK now lets you account for that uncertainty by looking at the whole range of possible time series projections in your model. This is particularly useful in financial modeling and portfolio simulation.
  • The Industrial version @RISK includes RISKAccelerator, the parallel-processing solution for faster simulations.  RISKAccelerator allows you to speed up large simulations by using all CPUs in a multi-CPU machine. If your PC has two processors, your simulations will run nearly twice as fast!

For full details, click here.

RISKOptimizer

riskoptimizerWouldn’t you like to know the best allocation of your limited resources to maximize your profits? Or the most efficient schedule to minimize costs? But what about the uncertainty inherent in sales projections, returns from individual investments, or production costs?

Traditional optimization methods ignore this uncertainty, a very risky approach. RISKOptimizer tells you not only the best combination of inputs to use, but the risk associated with each strategy. You can seek out strategies that enable you to minimize your risks while achieving your goals.

RISKOptimizer combines the Monte Carlo simulation technology of @RISK, Palisade’s risk analysis add-in, with the latest solving technology to allow the optimization of Excel spreadsheet models that contain uncertain values. Take any optimization problem and replace uncertain values with @RISK probability distribution functions that represent a range of possible values. For each trial solution RISKOptimizer tries during optimization, it runs a Monte Carlo simulation, finding the combination of adjustable cells that provides the best simulation results.

INDUSTRIAL VERSION

  • RISKOptimizer is only available in the Industrial versions of either @RISK or the entire DecisionTools Suite.

For full details, click here.

TopRank

toprankHave you ever been faced with a large, complex spreadsheet model and been tasked with determining what the most important factors are? What if you need to determine how sensitive your profits are to particular variables, such as material costs or market share? Or perhaps you want to run a risk analysis in @RISK, but don’t know which variables are important enough to add distribution functions to.

Included with the DecisionTools Suite, TopRank performs automated “what if” sensitivity analysis on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets to answer these questions. Define any output or “bottom line” cell or cells, and TopRank will automatically find and vary all input cells which affect your output. You can also control exactly which cells you’d like to analyze. The end result is easy-to-understand tornado charts, spider graphs, and other reports which clearly identify and rank which affect your bottom line the most.

INDUSTRIAL VERSION

  • The Industrial version of TopRank includes support for @RISK distribution functions, which gives more flexibility when modelling variation across an input.
  • The industrial version of TopRank can perform unlimited Multi-Way What-If Analysis, supporting an unlimited number of input correlations.

For full details, click here.

PrecisionTree

precisiontree

Have you ever been faced with a complex, multi-stage decision like what is the best strategy for testing and drilling for oil, or should we build a new plant or buy an existing one?  What about bidding on a new project – what should you bid, and how should you react to your opponent’s bid?  Or perhaps you are faced with determining the best litigation strategy is in a legal dispute, or the best series of medical tests and procedures to maximize a patient’s chance of recovery?

PrecisionTree helps you tackle these types of complex, sequential decisions.  With PrecisionTree, you can visually map out, organize, and analyze  decisions using decision trees, right in Microsoft Excel. Decision trees are quantitative diagrams with nodes and branches representing different possible decision paths and chance events. This helps you identify and calculate the value of all possible alternatives, so you can choose the best option with confidence.

INDUSTRIAL VERSION

  • In the Professional version of PrecisionTree, a model can have at most 1,000 nodes representing decisions, results, or other logic.  With Industrial PrecisionTree, this restriction is removed.

For full details, click here.

StatTools

starttools Have you ever needed forecasting, regression, quality control charts, or other statistical analyses beyond the basics that are provided with Excel?  Have you ever doubted the accuracy of some of Excel’s statistical results?  StatTools addresses both of these issues, providing a new, powerful statistics toolset to Excel.

StatTools covers the most commonly used statistical procedures, and offers unprecedented capabilities for adding new, custom analyses. StatTools replaces Excel’s built-in statistics functions with its own calculations. The accuracy of Excel’s built-in statistics calculations has often been questioned, so StatTools doesn’t use them. All StatTools functions are true Excel functions, and behave exactly as native Excel functions do. Over 30 wide-ranging statistical procedures plus 9 built-in data utilities include forecasts, time series, descriptive statistics, normality tests, group comparisons, correlation, regression analysis, quality control, nonparametric tests, and more.

StatTools features live, “hot-linked” statistics calculations. Change a value in your dataset and your statistics report automatically updates. There is no need to manually re-run your analyses.

INDUSTRIAL VERSION

  • With the Industrial version of StatTools, datasets for modeling and analysis are allowed to span multiple worksheets.

For full details, click here.

NeuralTools

neuraltools

Have you ever been faced with a lot of data and wanted to use it for predicting the future, or for classifying unknowns? Have you ever had to make a decision given new, incomplete data?

Of course you have. Nobody ever has complete information when making decisions.  But if you have access to historical data for your problem, NeuralTools can help!  NeuralTools is a sophisticated data mining application that uses neural networks in Microsoft Excel.   With NeuralTools, you can make accurate new predictions based on the patterns in your known data. NeuralTools imitates brain functions in order to “learn” the structure of your data. Once NeuralTools understands your data, it can take new inputs and make intelligent predictions. Your spreadsheet can “think” for you like never before!

NeuralTools is used to make credit lending decisions by predicting the likelihood a new borrower will pay back a loan.  It’s used for reducing transactional risk by identifying bank or credit card transactions likely to be fraudulent. Call centers use it for staffing strategies by predicting call volumes.  Medical professionals use NeuralTools to diagnose unknown tumors and other ailments. The list is endless!

INDUSTRIAL VERSION

  • NeuralTools Industrial includes live prediction updates in it’s model results.  With live prediction updates, when your input data is changed, the predicted values are automatically updated without having to rerun the model.
  • The Industrial version of NeuralTools allows model to be built based on datasets with unlimited cases; datasets are limited to 1,000 cases in the professional version.

For full details, click here.

Evolver

evolver

Wouldn’t you like to know the best allocation of your limited resources to maximize your profits?  Or the most efficient schedule to minimize costs?  Or the most efficient remediation strategy to minimize environmental damage?

With Evolver, you can tackle tough problems like these, and much more. Evolver is an advanced, yet simple-to-use optimization add-in for Microsoft Excel. Evolver uses innovative genetic algorithm (GA), OptQuest, and linear programming technology to quickly solve problems in finance, distribution, scheduling, resource allocation, manufacturing, budgeting, engineering, and more. Virtually any type of problem that can be modeled in Excel can be solved by Evolver, including otherwise unsolvable, complex nonlinear problems. Evolver has a unique ability arrive at the best overall “global” solution to a problem—solutions traditional solvers typically miss.

INDUSTRIAL VERSION

  • In the Professional version of Evolver, models with up to 250 adjustable variables can be defined.  The Industrial version does not have this limitation.

For full details, click here.

Potent Combinations

Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can be used in modeling your business with valuable results.  When combined, however, your analyses and models can become even more powerful.

little_atriskbluePluslittle_toprank@RISK and TopRank
The focus of an @RISK analysis can be narrowed using TopRank. Especially with large models, this saves time and improves accuracy of your @RISK analysis. @RISK functions can also be used by TopRank to represent a wider range of values than TopRank’s standard functions.

little_atriskbluePluslittle_precisiontree@RISK and PrecisionTree
@RISK can be combined with PrecisionTree to represent uncertain chance events and payoffs in decision tree models. This enhances the accuracy of decision tree models by considering wider ranges of values for chance events instead of a few limited, discrete options.

little_atriskbluePluslittle_stattools@RISK then StatTools
@RISK results can be run through a StatTools analysis to assess confidence intervals. @RISK can also be applied to results from a StatTools forecast to simulate possible outcomes with more precision.

little_riskoptimizerbluePluslittle_atriskRISKOptimizer and @RISK
Run RISKOptimizer on an existing @RISK model to maximize your profits, minimize your costs, or achieve a particular target. RISKOptimizer uses all the same functions as @RISK.

little_riskoptimizerbluePluslittle_stattoolsRISKOptimizer and StatTools
You could run a RISKOptimizer analysis on the results from a StatTools forecast, applying @RISK functions to the forecast values while adjusting controllable factors to maximize total profits.

little_riskoptimizerbluePluslittle_neuraltoolsRISKOptimizer and NeuralTools
Combine RISKOptimizer with NeuralTools to make live predictions on each trial solution.

little_precisiontreebluePluslittle_toprankPrecisionTree and TopRank
PrecisionTree models can also be run with TopRank to identify the most critical factors in larger, more complex tree models.

little_neuraltoolsbluePluslittle_evolverNeuralTools and Evolver
Combine NeuralTools with Evolver to optimize complex problems. Set Evolver’s target goal as the live predictive output for NeuralTools, and the cells for Evolver to adjust as the new inputs for NeuralTools. Then watch Evolver and NeuralTools work together to predict the optimal solution.

little_stattoolsbluePluslittle_atriskbluePluslittle_riskoptimizerStatTools and @RISK then RISKOptimizer
Combine StatTools with @RISK to assess confidence intervals on simulation results. You can also apply @RISK functions to StatTools forecast results to simulate possible outcomes with more precision than the deterministic analysis alone. Run RISKOptimizer on your model using the same @RISK functions in order to find the best combination of factors to maximize your forecast profits.

We at RDC understand that not every business will need every tool.  We will be happy to discuss your business needs with you, and recommend an optimal combination of tools for your business.

We don’t just stop there and leave you on your own, but will be happy to further serve you in two ways:

  • You wouldn’t purchase complex industrial machinery without training to ensure you knew how to operate it safely and effectively.  Similarly, RDC provides wants to ensure you get the most out of your new tools.  Based on your resources and needs, we can put together training workshops in which attendees will learn and experience the power and flexibility of Palisade products.  Click here for more information.
  • You understand the valuable impact that business risk modeling can have on your business, but maybe your resources are already spread too thinly.  When it best fits the needs of your business, RDC can provide custom-developed business risk models that you will be able to use yourself.  For more information, click here.

We at Risk Dynamics Consultancy are waiting to hear from you; please contact us!